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West Ham has played a weak early season compared to expectations, with a 2-2-4 balance and the team is only in 16th place. Based on the name list, the team should be in the top ten fighting for European places, but Julen Lopetegui's process is only at the beginning. Glimpses of better can be seen here and there, West Ham beat Ipswich 4-1 at home before the national team break, but last week a good first half against Tottenham ended in a second-half collapse and a 1-4 defeat.
West Ham can't keep their game together for the full 90 minutes, but the team's performances fluctuate too much, especially the defensive end has been strangely vulnerable and uncertain, even though the team acquired Max Kilman from Wolverhampton to bring toughness. The offensive end is the team's biggest weapon, Jarred Bowen, Antonio, Kudus and Paqueta are players who can turn individual games around for their team. The acquisition of the attack head Fullkrug is still on the sidelines, Kudus is also out of the field due to the red card from the previous match.
xG-data is rather a hand in hand with all round performances and expected goals and points. Maybe they could have a few more in the bag, but not much injustice there, just instability. At home there are no draws yet:
Uncertainty about ten Hag's possible firing has been hovering over Manchester United throughout the early season, and the team's game performances do not promise too much success for this season either. United have started the season in the Premier League with a record of 3-2-3, which puts the team in 13th place in the league. Like West Ham, United should be ranked significantly higher with their current squad than they are, but the performances are uneven and the defense is weak, despite several signings.
The xG-data agrees with with expected points, but there should had been a lot more goals in both ends in ManUtd games, that stat will regret to the mean sooner or later and we can expect more goal-rich games in the near future.
A week ago, United played a balanced home match against Brentford, winning 2-1, but already in the midweek, the volatility continued when the team drew 1-1 away from Fenerbache in the Europa League. In the Europa League, there are three draws from as many matches, United is far from the top spots in the initial group stage or a direct playoff spot. The week's game is stressful for United, and the lineup situation is not the easiest either. Still missing are Antony, Maguire, Mainoo and Yoro, possibly also Malacia, Mount and Shaw. Absences are a minus, although United's attacking department still is quality (on paper at least and brings the opportunity to grab away points, although two last away games were goalless draws.
West Ham and Manchester United are both teams that play below their potential week in and week out. Both teams have flashes here and there, but poor defending and loss of nerve control due to poor results in tight matches are the main reasons for the lack of wins. West Ham is betting on counterattacks, while United welcomes Höjlund, who has recovered from injuries, with open arms, and he scored his opening goal of the season in Brentford's net.
Neither of the teams can be trusted, I am not confident in taking West Ham winning anyone, but another 1-1 draw is the most likely outcome in my papers, so with these odds we have to go for a draw, with reduced stakes.